MiniMax Surged 24% in a Week on Its New AI Video Tool — But With $79M in Revenue and $251M in Losses, Is the Hype Sustainable?
Shares of MiniMax Group (0100.HK) slipped 0.9% to HK$245 on August 7 as traders locked in profits after one of Hong Kong's most dramatic tech rallies this summer. The Shanghai-based AI lab launched its latest video-generation model on July 31 — a tool that turns text, images, and audio into high-resolution video clips with built-in sound — and the stock has rocketed roughly 24% from HK$197.20 on July 28. Today's dip signals a pause, not a reversal, but the question for shareholders is whether the product excitement can outlast the trading frenzy.
A New Video Tool Grabbed Attention, But the Revenue Is Tiny
MiniMax unveiled its new model at WAIC 2026 in Shanghai, generating immediate buzz . The Hong Kong market noticed immediately: shares climbed roughly 13% by midday on launch day, with nearly HK$1 billion in turnover. Yet the company's last reported full-year revenue was just US$79 million in 2025, up 159% year-over-year , while the adjusted net loss stood at US$250.9 million . That means the market is pricing explosive future growth into a company still burning cash at three times its sales.
Stock Connect Opened the Door to Mainland Money A structural catalyst turbocharged the rally beyond pure product hype. On August 6, MiniMax was officially added to the Stock Connect program, and mainland investors immediately poured a net HK$2.7 billion into the stock in a single session . Morgan Stanley has estimated cumulative southbound inflows could reach approximately HK$18.4 billion over the next 180 days — a powerful demand tailwind that didn't exist a week ago.
Competitive Pressure Leaves Little Room for Execution Errors
The launch was positioned explicitly as a response to competitive pressure from ByteDance and Kuaishou, both advancing rapidly in AI video . Analysts project MiniMax revenue reaching $219 million in 2026 , but that still pales against well-capitalized rivals. The company's API is priced at $0.13 per second of generated video , an aggressively low rate that could attract developers but also compress margins.
The Valuation Bet Depends on a Revenue Curve That Hasn't Arrived
The average analyst 12-month price target sits at HK$705, implying more than 130% upside , yet the company has provided no clear timeline for profitability . With $1.05 billion in cash at year-end 2025 , MiniMax has runway — but shareholders are paying for a vision, not earnings. The next test: whether new-user adoption of the video tool translates into measurable revenue acceleration when interim results arrive.