Shares of Adyen shifted higher after Goldman Sachs added the Dutch payments processor to its prestigious European Conviction List, a shortlist of stocks the bank's analysts believe will meaningfully outperform. The endorsement, implying a price target roughly 77% above recent levels, arrives at a moment when Adyen's stock remains well below its 2021 peak, raising a pointed question: is the recovery trade finally here, or is Goldman early? Goldman Sachs Puts Adyen on Its Best-Ideas List With a Bold 77% Upside Target — But Is the Battered Fintech Ready to Earn It?
Shares shifted higher after Goldman Sachs named Adyen one of its highest-conviction European stock picks for September, projecting 77% upside — the largest target gap of any stock in the bank's refresh. The endorsement lands while Adyen trades roughly 37% below its 52-week high and down nearly 28% year-to-date, making this a classic contrarian call on a bruised growth name.
Goldman Is Betting the Worst of the Selloff Is Overblown
Analyst Mohammed Moawalla projected a 77% upside for the stock , arguing Adyen's integrated technology platform provides a core competitive edge, fueled by new client growth, its U.S. partnership with Toast, and Shopify's broader European rollout.
Goldman also highlighted that Adyen stands to benefit from the rise of AI-powered commerce through partnerships with OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft. In plain terms, Goldman thinks Adyen is being priced like a company in trouble when its business is actually accelerating.
The Numbers Back Up Faster Growth — For Now
Adyen raised its 2026 net revenue growth forecast to 21%–23% on a constant-currency basis, citing higher transaction activity from existing and new customers.
First-half net revenue hit €1.30 billion, up 21% at constant currencies, while processed volume surged 24% to €803.8 billion. The guidance bump followed Adyen's €750 million purchase of loyalty provider Talon.One and $335 million acquisition of billing platform Orb , its first-ever deals in 20 years.
Acquisitions Add Revenue but Squeeze Margins
The two acquisitions are expected to add about one percentage point to 2026 net revenue growth but reduce the full-year EBITDA margin (a measure of core profitability) by a similar amount.
Capital spending is also expected to rise to roughly 7% of net revenue, above historical levels , as Adyen invests in data infrastructure. Management's longer-term target — EBITDA margin above 55% by 2028 — remains unchanged, but investors must accept thinner profits today for bigger returns later.
Big Call, Big Risks Remain
EMEA net revenue growth has slowed to 15% from 26% a year ago, partly because global merchants are shifting volume to other regions.
CFO Ethan Tandowsky departed at end of August; deputy Hwa Tsao is serving as interim. A 77% upside target requires near-flawless execution on acquisitions, margin recovery, and continued enterprise wins — a tall order for a stock that has spent most of 2026 heading in the opposite direction.