Shares surged as Tesla put its steering-wheel-free robotaxi on public roads for the first time, turning years of promises into a visible product. The stock jumped 5.7% to $328.10 on the Milan exchange — its sharpest single-day move since August — as investors treated the September 3 launch as proof that Tesla's autonomy pivot is real. The question now: does the reality match the rally?
A Purpose-Built Robotaxi Finally Carries Passengers — On a Tiny Scale. Tesla put driverless Cybercab vehicles on public streets in Austin , a two-seat vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals that relies entirely on its onboard computer for full autonomy. But the fleet remains minuscule. As of June, Tesla had registered just 42 robotaxis in Texas — well below Elon Musk's earlier target of 1,000 vehicles within months of launch.
That's less than one-tenth the size of Waymo's 577 authorized robotaxis in the state. Adding a new vehicle type to a fleet this small is a milestone, not a business.
Morgan Stanley Says Fleet Growth Is the Only Thing That Matters. "Continued growth in the unsupervised fleet (Cybercab or Model Y) is key for the stock to outperform through year-end," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. The firm holds a $400 price target, implying roughly 22% upside from the current Milan quote. If the event underwhelms, the market reaction would likely be "muted or negative," they argued. Translation: the stock has priced in acceleration that hasn't materialized in fleet numbers yet.
Strong Revenue Growth, But Margins Are Heading the Wrong Way. Tesla's Q2 2026 revenue rose 26% year over year to $28.24 billion, driven by record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles. Yet the launch comes alongside sharply lower margins , and Tesla's Q2 update quietly omitted its previous statement that Cybercab was on schedule for volume production in 2026.
Prediction markets now give Tesla just a 17% chance of completing a retail Cybercab sale by year-end, down from 33% in April.
The Valuation Gap Between Promise and Proof. GuruFocus estimates Tesla shares are roughly 14% overvalued versus an intrinsic-value estimate of $333.79.
If Tesla deploys Cybercab fleets at scale, it could shift part of its business from one-time car sales to recurring ride-hailing revenue — a higher-margin model that would justify the premium. But scaling from dozens of cars to thousands, while managing safety and regulators, remains the hardest part. Today's rally is a bet on that future, not a reflection of it.