Shares of Almonty Industries jumped 10.5% to $15.31 on August 14, bucking a weaker broad market, after Diamond Equity Research published an issuer-sponsored update note presenting an illustrative US$20 valuation — roughly 31% above the current price. The question for shareholders: does the underlying business justify the gap, or is a company-funded price target doing the heavy lifting?
A 498% Revenue Surge Still Leaves Most of the "Profit" on Paper
Q2 revenue hit C$43.0 million, up 498% year-over-year, with income from mining operations reaching C$26.1 million and adjusted EBITDA at C$17.6 million. The headline net income of C$181.8 million looks transformative, but C$173.1 million of that — the vast majority — came from non-cash gains on derivative and warrant revaluations tied to its convertible debt, not from selling tungsten. Strip those out and the operating picture is strong but far more modest. Investors pricing the stock off reported earnings per share could be badly misled.
Sangdong Is Producing, but Still Ramping
In June 2026, Almonty began feeding stockpiled ore through its newly commissioned processing plant to produce saleable tungsten concentrate — a real milestone after a three-year build. At full capacity, the mine is expected to supply about 40% of the world's tungsten output outside China. But Phase I remains in commissioning and ramp-up , meaning production volumes are still well below the target of roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore per year. Revenue will scale only as throughput climbs.
A Loaded Balance Sheet Buys Time — and Dilution Risk
Almonty closed an oversubscribed US$800 million convertible note offering on June 9, pushing its cash position to C$1.2 billion from C$268 million six months earlier. That war chest funds expansions in South Korea, Portugal, and Montana simultaneously. But convertible notes, if eventually exchanged for shares, dilute existing holders — a trade-off baked into the non-cash derivative swings distorting current earnings.
An Issuer-Paid Report Is Not Independent Research
The report was commissioned and paid for by Almonty Industries itself.
Separately, Alliance Global Partners analyst Jake Sekelsky carries a Buy rating with a US$19.25 target, providing a somewhat independent reference point. European APT tungsten prices recently quoted around $2,900–$3,250 per metric ton unit, supporting near-term revenue strength — but Chinese domestic APT has already corrected roughly 25% from its July peak , hinting that the pricing tailwind may be fading. Whether Almonty can convert a real mine into $20-per-share value depends less on paid research and more on whether Sangdong's ramp hits full stride before tungsten's hot streak cools.