China is unlikely to develop a viable alternative to ASML Holding NV’s most advanced chip-making technology within the next decade. UBS analysts report that China’s domestic lithography program currently matches ASML’s development stage from 2004.
This trajectory puts Chinese progress approximately 15 years behind the milestone for mass-producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools. Chinese firms face significant hurdles in replicating the EUV systems necessary for the world’s most advanced semiconductors.
UBS expects China to reach high-volume manufacturing for previous-generation deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines within two to five years. However, catching up to ASML’s current top-tier EUV technology remains a distant prospect.