Shares of ASML stumbled after Bloomberg reported on June 19 that U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick privately warned company executives that one of its advanced chipmaking machines may have been illegally diverted to China. The report sent ASML shares down as much as 2.7% in Amsterdam trading before a partial recovery. For a company trading near its all-time high — which hit $1,929.68 on June 18 — at roughly 37x earnings, the stakes of even an unproven accusation are enormous.
ASML's Denial Is Unusually Specific — and Backed by Data
The company circulated a document titled "No indication of any ASML EUV system in China."
ASML insists all 314 of its EUV systems are accounted for and none sit on Chinese soil.
Each machine costs between $150 million and $400 million, contains over 100,000 components, and requires ongoing proprietary maintenance from ASML itself — making covert relocation extraordinarily difficult. U.S. officials say they have proof of banned shipments but decline to show it. The gap between the accusation's severity and the absence of public evidence keeps the situation unresolved.
The Real Financial Threat Isn't One Machine — It's the MATCH Act
U.S. lawmakers are pushing a bipartisan bill that would pressure allies to block shipments of ASML's older deep-ultraviolet tools to China — machines China can still buy today. According to Bank of America, a full ban on those tools and related servicing could cut ASML's revenues by roughly 14–15% and operating profit by 16–17%.
ASML expects China to account for about 20% of total sales this year, down from 33% in 2025. The EUV diversion claim, proven or not, hands lawmakers ammunition to push those restrictions faster.
AI-Driven Demand Is the Counterweight — For Now
ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to €36–40 billion after Q1 sales of €8.8 billion and net income of €2.8 billion.
Every advanced AI chip from Nvidia, AMD, and Apple passes through ASML's EUV systems , and customers like TSMC are accelerating factory construction. That booming non-China demand is why the stock has rallied sharply this year despite mounting geopolitical risk.
The Bigger Picture: A Monopoly Under Political Pressure
ASML is the only company on the planet that makes these machines. That dominance makes it indispensable — and a political target. If an EUV machine were confirmed in China, it would represent a significant breach in the U.S.-led semiconductor containment strategy. Even without proof, the accusation alone introduces a regulatory risk premium into a stock priced for perfection.