Shares surged 4.4% to $87.33 in pre-market Monday, extending a blistering 19.7% rally from last week's $72.96 low, after AST SpaceMobile publicly endorsed a landmark joint venture among AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon to pool spectrum and eliminate wireless dead zones via satellite. The question now: does the market's enthusiasm match what this company can actually deliver?
Three Rival Carriers Uniting Validates the Entire Satellite-to-Phone Idea
AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have proposed a joint venture to enhance connectivity through satellite-based direct-to-device services.
The three carriers said the JV will make joint investment in using satellite-based technologies to address coverage gaps, bring together IP and terrestrial spectrum, and create industry specifications. For AST, the company already has deals with both AT&T and Verizon, and the new joint venture effectively validates what AST has been building toward: 5G-quality coverage delivered from low Earth orbit. CEO Abel Avellan called the company "a key enabler of this transformation." That's more than cheerleading — it signals AST expects formal participation.
The Execution Gap Is Enormous Here's the catch: AST only has six satellites in orbit right now, and it needs between 45 and 60 operational to offer commercial service in northern latitudes.
The company reported its next three satellites are set for a Falcon 9 launch around mid-June, with satellites 11 through 33 already deep in production. An April Blue Origin launch failure already set timelines back. The market is pricing in a constellation that largely doesn't exist yet.
Ugly Earnings Make the Valuation a Leap of Faith
AST's Q1 2026 results came in well below expectations — EPS was -$0.66 versus a forecasted -$0.21, and revenue was $14.7 million against estimates of $37.48 million.
Despite these results, AST maintained full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, with half already in contracted backlog. The company reaffirmed a $1 billion revenue target for 2027. At a roughly $32 billion market cap, investors are paying a steep premium on promises.
Competition Is Closing In Fast
T-Mobile has teamed up with SpaceX's Starlink, Verizon is going direct-to-device via Skylo, and Amazon is pushing into the mix with its own satellite venture and a Globalstar partnership.
Amazon agreed to acquire Globalstar in a roughly $11.6 billion deal, planning to enter the direct-to-device market by 2028. AST's technology — nearly 100 Mbps peak speeds to unmodified phones — is impressive, but SpaceX has a massive head start in deployment.
The bottom line: The carrier JV is genuinely positive news that deepens AST's strategic relevance. But six satellites, a $191 million quarterly net loss, and trillion-dollar competitors mean today's rally is built more on potential than proof.