Market expectations for the Clarity Act to be signed into law by 2026 have collapsed to a 20% probability. This current outlook marks a sharp decline from sentiment observed just months prior, when the legislation maintained a passage likelihood exceeding 80%.
The 60-percentage-point drop in legislative confidence suggests the cryptocurrency sector may require a different catalyst for growth. Current projections indicate an 80% chance that the bill will fail to reach enactment within the 2026 calendar year.