Shares jumped as CoreWeave climbed to $133.51 in pre-market trading Tuesday, up 4.4% ahead of tomorrow's first-quarter earnings report — the company's first as a public company. Wall Street expects roughly $1.97 billion in revenue, representing year-over-year growth exceeding 100%. The stock has risen nearly 20% in five trading days, propelled by blockbuster contract announcements and broader market enthusiasm around AI infrastructure spending.
A Backlog That Could Dwarf the Revenue — If It Converts
CoreWeave's current backlog — signed contracts not yet converted into revenue — stands at $66.8 billion.
Jefferies analyst Brent Thill projects that recent deals could push remaining commitments above $95 billion , anchored by a $21 billion extended deal with Meta running through 2032
and a roughly $6 billion commitment from Jane Street, which also invested $1 billion directly into the company. The question: converting paper commitments into actual revenue requires building data centers on time — something far easier to promise than deliver.
Losses Are Getting Bigger, Not Smaller
Consensus estimates point to a per-share loss of $0.91, expanding from the $0.60 loss recorded in Q1 2025.
Management itself guided for adjusted operating income of just $0–$40 million, with $6–$7 billion in capital spending this quarter alone.
CoreWeave expects total capital expenditures of $30–$35 billion in 2026, more than tripling 2025 levels. That spending is backed by aggressive borrowing: last month, it closed an $8.5 billion loan facility, having secured roughly $28 billion in combined equity and debt financing over the past year.
Customer Concentration Still Haunts the Story
Wells Fargo estimates about a third of CoreWeave's contracted revenue comes from OpenAI,
which reportedly missed recent user and revenue projections internally.
CoreWeave says no single client now represents more than 35% of its revenue backlog, down from 85% at the start of 2025 — real progress, but still top-heavy for a company carrying this much debt.
The Margin Math Investors Need to Watch
CoreWeave expects margins to climb from low single digits in Q1 to low double digits by Q4 2026 as capacity ramps against a largely fixed cost base.
Options traders are pricing in a move of roughly 18.7% in either direction after results — a coin-flip bet on whether this infrastructure spending machine can start generating profits before its debt load overwhelms it. Tomorrow's call will reveal whether the AI boom's biggest builder is on schedule or borrowing time.