Shares shifted as Figma jumped to $19.77 in pre-market trading ahead of what may be the most revealing earnings report since the company's July 2025 IPO. The design-software maker is set to report Q1 2026 earnings today, projecting $315–$317 million in revenue — 38% year-over-year growth — despite a staggering 48.7% decline in share price year-to-date. Tonight's call will offer the first real look at whether charging customers for AI usage is working.
The First Report Card on Paid AI Credits Arrives Tonight
Starting in March 2026, Figma began enforcing limits on AI credits — the currency customers spend to use AI features — and offering paid add-ons or pay-as-you-go plans. This quarter is the first to reflect any revenue from that shift. Before enforcement, roughly 75% of customers paying more than $10,000 a year were already using AI credits weekly , and more than half of customers spending over $100,000 in annual revenue had people using the AI design tool every week. The question is whether that usage converts to dollars.
The Stock Is Priced for Disaster — or a Turnaround
Figma posted full-year 2025 revenue of $1.056 billion with 84.76% gross margins, yet trades at roughly 10x sales near its 52-week low after an 83% decline from its August 2025 peak of $142.92.
Ten analysts carry a consensus "Hold" rating with an average price target of $50.50 — more than double the current price. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $54, while RBC trimmed to $38 citing AI margin pressure.
AI Is Growing Users but Squeezing Profits
In 2025, cost of revenues surged 112% year over year, driven partly by $49.1 million in higher infrastructure costs tied to AI, pushing non-GAAP gross margin to 82.4% from 92% in 2024.
Figma guides for 2026 non-GAAP operating income of $100–$110 million, implying an operating margin of roughly 8% — down from 12% in 2025. Investors need to see AI credits offsetting these costs, not just boosting engagement.
Google's Free Design Tool Looms Over Everything
Google launched an updated free AI design tool in March 2026 that triggered a 12% stock decline in two days , and the bull thesis weakens if Google meaningfully erodes Figma's paying customer base or revenue growth slips below 25%. Tonight's retention figures — last quarter at 136% net dollar retention — will signal whether that threat is real or overblown.