Goldman Sachs Calls Figma a Buy After a 50% Crash — But Can Growth Alone Justify the Bet?

Shares surged +5.7% to $19.80 after Goldman Sachs flagged Figma as a top rebound pick from what Wall Street has dubbed the "SaaSpocalypse" — a broad, fear-driven sell-off of software stocks in 2026. Figma's share price had plunged over 50% in 2026 through April 30 , punished by fears that AI-generated images and code would gut the market for design software. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the sell-off "too broad," creating what the firm sees as a discount entry point. The question now: is the rebound anchored in fundamentals, or just sentiment swinging back?

• The Revenue Numbers Don't Look Like a Company Under Siege. Figma generated $304 million in Q4 revenue, up 40% year over year, and achieved $1.056 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, growing 41% . For 2026, management guided to roughly $1.37 billion in revenue, implying about 30% growth. That deceleration is real, but a software company growing 30%+ at $1B+ in sales is rare — and the sell-off priced it as if growth were collapsing.

• Existing Customers Are Spending More, Not Less. Figma's net dollar retention rate — a measure of how much more existing customers spend each year — sits at 136%.

That figure has been accelerating: 129% in Q2, 131% in Q3, and 136% in Q4. This is the single most important counter-narrative to the AI threat story: companies aren't pulling back from Figma, they're deepening their commitment.

• AI Is Squeezing Margins Even as It Drives Usage. The 2026 outlook implies non-GAAP operating margin around 8%, below the 12% achieved in 2025, as AI and go-to-market investments accelerate.

The shift to monetizing both subscriptions and AI usage credits comes with visible margin pressure tied to AI infrastructure and hosting costs. Investors are effectively funding an AI buildout with no guaranteed payoff timeline.

• The Stock Is Still Far Below Where Analysts Think It Should Trade. According to 13 analysts, the average rating is "Hold" with a 12-month price target of $50.50 — roughly 155% above the current $19.80. Concerns about execution risk and the AI investment cycle have led some to cut targets , but even bears see substantially higher value. Hedge fund interest is rising: 51 funds held FIG at year-end, up from 38 the prior quarter.

The bottom line: Figma's growth is undeniable, but investors buying here are betting that Wall Street's AI panic was irrational and that margin compression is temporary. That's two bets, not one.