Shares of Robinhood Markets jumped 7.2% to $89.76 on June 10, defying a down day for broader indices, after Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target and the company began routing trades through a new exchange it partly owns. The question for shareholders: is the market correctly pricing a business that is still down roughly 27% year-to-date?
• An Analyst Bet That Wall Street Is Missing the Full Picture. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating on HOOD and raised its price target to $110 from $100, citing the company's Rothera joint venture with Susquehanna.
The new target is based on 27 times its 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $3.42 billion, combined with a discounted cash flow analysis. The core argument: Robinhood currently earns only the retail brokerage cut on its prediction-market trades while a third-party provider captures the underlying exchange fees, and the Rothera venture should recapture a large majority of those economics over time. In plain terms, Robinhood is building its own toll booth instead of paying someone else's.
• Owning the Exchange Changes the Math. Rothera is the regulated exchange and clearinghouse that emerged from the Susquehanna joint venture, built through the acquisition of MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange.
After launching at the end of 2024, prediction markets quickly became Robinhood's fastest-growing product line by revenue; while over 12 billion event contracts were traded in 2025, over 16 billion have already traded in 2026 year-to-date.
Analysts project more than $2.5 billion in U.S. prediction-market volume on the World Cup alone. By routing high-volume contracts through its own exchange, Robinhood keeps fees it was previously sharing with Kalshi — a meaningful margin improvement if volumes hold.
• A $35 Million Insider Buy Adds Conviction. Board director Meyer Malka's entities have poured over $35 million into Robinhood stock in roughly a week; as founder of Ribbit Capital, one of Robinhood's earliest backers, he has deep familiarity with the company's trajectory.
The firm also reported record platform assets of $377 billion in May, up 48% year-over-year.
• Risks Remain Real. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 41, and InvestingPro analysis indicates it is overvalued relative to its fair value.
Robinhood missed Q1 earnings and revenue estimates in April, mainly due to weaker crypto trading.
Event contracts surged 320%, but crypto revenue collapsed 47% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Rothera is still in early innings — routing baseball and World Cup bets — and must prove it can scale without regulatory hiccups. The rally prices in a future that hasn't arrived yet.