Shares of Robinhood surged after Morgan Stanley flipped from neutral to bullish, raising a question Wall Street has been slow to ask: how much revenue can one app extract from customers it already has — without adding a single new account?

Analyst Michael Cyprys upgraded Robinhood from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raised the price target from $124 to $150 , putting the new target at roughly 43% above the stock's level at the time of the call . The move came one day after Bernstein reiterated its own Outperform rating with an even higher target of $160 . LSEG data shows 22 of the 28 analysts who cover the stock now rate it a buy or strong buy.

  • Prediction Markets Are Now Robinhood's Biggest Trading Revenue Line. Robinhood generated $156 million in prediction-market revenue in Q2 — more than the $129 million from stock trading and the $100 million from crypto.

Users traded 13.6 billion event contracts in the quarter, more than 10 times the year-earlier figure.

That revenue came from fewer than 2 million users, a fraction of the 28-million base — meaning the company has barely scratched the surface. Bernstein projects full-year 2026 prediction-market revenue at $586 million, a 286% jump from 2025.

  • The Crypto Crutch Is Fading — And That's the Point. Morgan Stanley cut its crypto forecasts yet still raised its 2026–2028 earnings estimates by 12% to 15%.

The thesis centers on growing assets, increased trading activity, and new product lines rather than crypto-driven gains — a meaningful shift in how the Street values Robinhood.

  • More Products Per Customer, Not More Customers. Cyprys noted that expanding product capabilities are improving the economics of Robinhood's 28-million customer base by driving higher assets, activity, and revenue per user rather than relying on new account growth.

As of Q2, the platform reported 4.8 million Gold subscribers (up 39% year-over-year), average revenue per user of $187 (up 24%), and total platform assets of $369 billion (up 32%).

  • A Legal Cloud Hangs Over the Fastest-Growing Business. The NFL season — historically Robinhood's highest-volume prediction-market event — begins September 4. But New Jersey filed a petition asking the Supreme Court to review a key prediction-market ruling on September 2 , adding regulatory risk to the very line Morgan Stanley is most excited about. Morgan Stanley forecasts a 23% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2028 to reach $8.0 billion — but that number assumes the legal framework holds.

Investors are paying for a company transitioning from meme-stock casino to diversified financial platform. The bet is that each user's wallet share keeps expanding; the risk is that regulators close the newest — and most profitable — window before it fully opens.