IBIT Slides 3.6% as Bitcoin Tracks a Broader Risk Rout — But Can ETF Inflows Keep the Floor From Falling?

Shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF dropped to $44.53, down 3.6%, as a broad risk-off wave swept through markets on May 15. The Nasdaq fell 1.52%, the S&P 500 slid 1.07%, and Bitcoin itself dropped 1.2% to around $78,700, while crude oil surged nearly 2.8% . The selloff came as observers declared only modest results from the Trump-Xi Beijing summit, where expectations had run high but the prevailing outlook was "stabilisation — not revitalisation" of U.S.-China relations . For IBIT holders — sitting in the world's largest Bitcoin ETF with roughly $67 billion in assets — the question is whether institutional demand can hold up against a deteriorating macro backdrop.

• The Summit Gave Traders Nothing to Buy

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg that chip export controls were "not a major topic of discussion" in Beijing . The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its last meeting , and Jerome Powell's final day as Fed Chair is today, with Kevin Warsh set to take over . That leadership transition adds uncertainty at exactly the wrong moment for rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.

• Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risk Are Squeezing Crypto

Bitcoin previously tumbled below $80,000 after U.S. airstrikes in Iran sent Brent crude briefly past $100 per barrel . The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed , keeping energy costs elevated. Higher oil feeds inflation expectations, which keeps the Fed from cutting rates — a chain reaction that directly punishes non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and, by extension, IBIT.

• ETF Inflows Were Strong — Until They Weren't

In April, IBIT captured $1.71 billion of the $2.44 billion that flowed into all spot Bitcoin ETFs, commanding a 70% market share . But momentum cracked: on May 7, Bitcoin ETFs saw $268.5 million in outflows, with IBIT alone losing $98 million . If outflows persist, the supply cushion that supported Bitcoin's recovery from $62,000 in February evaporates.

• IBIT Sits 38% Below Its 52-Week High

Over the past year, IBIT has traded between a low of $35.30 and a high of $71.82 . At $44.53, it's closer to the floor than the ceiling. Strategy's Michael Saylor holds 818,334 BTC at an average cost of $75,537 — barely above where Bitcoin trades now . If BTC slips further, forced selling by leveraged holders could amplify IBIT's downside in a market already short on conviction.