Shares of Intuitive Machines jumped +6.0% to $36.29 on May 22, gapping higher with no fresh company-specific headline. The rally instead feeds off a remarkable string of analyst price-target increases—at least six firms raised their targets in the past week—and anticipation of an imminent NASA contract decision worth billions. For a company that lost $0.25 per share last quarter and missed revenue estimates by 8%, the stock's resilience is raising a pointed question: are investors buying a vision that the financials haven't yet delivered?
Analysts Are Piling On Bullish Targets Despite a Big Earnings Miss
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target from $26 to $43 on May 19, maintaining an Overweight rating.
Roth Capital went to $50 from $35 , Clear Street to $44 from $25 , and B. Riley to $45 from $40 —all with Buy ratings. Deutsche Bank on May 20 raised its target to $34 from $22. The chorus comes despite Q1 results that badly missed: the company posted a loss of $0.25 per share versus the $0.07 loss expected, and revenue of $186.7 million fell short of the $202.95 million estimate.
The Lunar Terrain Vehicle Decision Could Be the Near-Term Catalyst
Management expects a contract decision on NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle award imminently and remains confident in winning.
The program has a combined maximum potential value of $4.6 billion.
NASA selected Intuitive Machines as one of three finalists , and a win would transform the company's already record $1.1 billion backlog.
Revenue Is Set to Quadruple—If the Backlog Converts
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance of $900 million to $1 billion in revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA (a measure of operating profit before non-cash charges). Q1 revenue of $186.7 million was roughly three times Q1 2025 , largely fueled by the Lanteris acquisition . The company expects 60–65% of its $1.1 billion backlog to convert this year.
Insiders Are Selling Into the Rally
Of 40 insider trades over the past six months, all 40 have been sales, with CEO Stephen Altemus alone selling over 3.1 million shares worth an estimated $52.3 million.
Director Kamal Ghaffarian sold another $4.86 million on May 18. While these were pre-planned transactions, the volume signals that those closest to the company are locking in gains at current levels—a dynamic shareholders should weigh against the bullish Wall Street narrative.