Shares of Nebius Group surged past $219 today, extending a two-day rally of more than 24% after the AI cloud company reported first-quarter revenue of $399 million — up 684% year-over-year and 75% quarter-over-quarter. The company beat earnings estimates by $0.55 per share and topped revenue expectations of $379 million by $20 million. The question now: can execution keep pace with a stock already trading well above every published analyst target?

Every Server Nebius Builds, It Sells — But the Bill Is Enormous

Nebius grew group revenue to $399 million and once again sold out its entire capacity, with demand exceeding available supply.

Its AI cloud profit margin (adjusted EBITDA) nearly doubled to 45%, up from 24% last quarter. But shareholders should note the catch: adjusted net loss was still $100.3 million, and total operating costs hit $527 million, meaning the core business remains unprofitable as it pours cash into growth. Capital spending reached $2.5 billion in Q1 alone , and full-year guidance was raised to $20–$25 billion, up from $16–$20 billion.

A $27 Billion Meta Deal Anchors Revenue — and Funds the Buildout

The centerpiece is a $27 billion, five-year Meta contract: $12 billion in guaranteed compute purchases and $15 billion in flexible capacity Nebius can sell to Meta or its own customers at potentially higher prices.

That deal de-risks a huge portion of future revenue and allows Nebius to use the contract as collateral for cheaper debt — critical when you're spending $25 billion a year.

The Stock Has Blown Past Wall Street's Price Targets

At roughly 16 times forward revenue with no profitability expected in 2026 or 2027, Nebius is priced for perfection. The stock now exceeds the consensus analyst target of $166–$177 , though DA Davidson raised its target to $250 today and BofA sits at $205. Any guidance miss or AI spending pullback would be severely punished.

Insiders Are Selling, Not Buying

Over the past six months, insiders made zero purchases and 12 sales — a pattern worth watching. The company ended Q1 with $9.3 billion in cash after raising $4.3 billion in convertible debt and $2 billion via warrants , giving it runway, but also loading the balance sheet with obligations. Nebius is building the right business at the right time — but at today's price, investors are paying in full for a future that still needs years to arrive.