Shares of Nebius Group surged 6.5% to $194.49 on Tuesday after a one-two punch: Nvidia formally disclosed a 9.3% passive stake via a Schedule 13G filing, and Freedom Capital upgraded the stock to Buy with a $200 price target. The twin catalysts accelerated a rebound from last week's sharp tech sell-off, but the stock remains well below its June high — raising the question of whether Nvidia's stamp of approval truly de-risks a company still burning cash to build out data centers at breakneck speed.

  • Nvidia Isn't Just Selling Chips — It's Buying Into the Customer. The stake includes the $2 billion investment Nvidia announced in March, when the chipmaker's ownership was estimated at roughly 8.3%. Nvidia now beneficially owns 22.25 million shares.

Most of those — 21.07 million — are held via pre-funded warrants that Nvidia cannot exercise or sell until September 11, 2026. The lock-up limits near-term selling pressure, but it also means Nvidia is making a long-duration bet. Nebius plans to deploy more than five gigawatts of computing capacity by end-2030 — expansion that would require substantial quantities of Nvidia processors, networking gear, and software. In short, Nvidia is financing a future customer.

  • An Analyst Says Enough Pain Has Passed. Freedom Capital noted the stock had fallen more than 40% from its all-time high of $299.86 on June 22, writing: "Perhaps there's enough risk squeezed out of this name to finally recommend buying it."

The firm raised its 2026 and 2027 revenue and EBITDA (a measure of operating profit before accounting charges) forecasts, expecting revenue and EBITDA growth of 209% and 336%, respectively. Separately, Northland raised its target to a far more aggressive $410, maintaining an Outperform rating.

  • The Revenue Ramp Is Real, but So Is the Cash Burn. Q1 cloud revenue hit $390 million, up 841% year-over-year and 82% quarter-over-quarter.

Freedom Capital projects sequential quarterly revenues of $586 million, $916 million, and $1.52 billion through year-end. Yet heavy spending, negative free cash flow, and reliance on large, concentrated contracts mean Nebius must keep tapping outside financing and flawlessly execute big data-center projects.

  • Insider Selling Clouds the Picture. Over the past three months, insiders sold $141.8 million in shares with no purchases reported — a contrast to Nvidia's buy-in that investors should weigh carefully. The recently secured $775 million debt facility, backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows, buys time , but execution risk remains the defining variable for a stock priced for perfection.