Shares of Oklo surged as much as 10.2% to $79.82 Thursday after the company announced a three-way partnership with NVIDIA and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop nuclear-powered infrastructure for AI data centers. The agreement combines advanced nuclear power, AI, digital twins, modeling, and simulation to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy. The announcement landed just one day after HSBC slapped a Buy rating and $96 price target on the stock, creating a one-two punch of momentum.
• NVIDIA's Name Carries Weight, but the Deal Is Still Early-Stage. The agreement establishes a proof-of-concept phase for integrated full-stack solutions that combine nuclear hardware with AI software.
The work aims to advance plutonium-bearing fuel development for Oklo's Pluto reactor, selected under the Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program, with initial focus areas including AI models for fuel validation and grid reliability studies. This is research collaboration, not a revenue contract — an important distinction for a company that still generates zero revenue.
• A $12.6 Billion Valuation on Promise Alone. The stock jumped 12.8% over the past week to $72.41, giving the advanced nuclear company a market capitalization of $12.6 billion despite posting negative EBITDA of $138.8 million in the last twelve months.
The company has no debt and holds roughly $2.5 billion in cash. It expects to book its first revenue later this year from the Idaho Radiochemistry Laboratory.
Oklo is guiding to $400 million in annual capital expenditure over the next two years , meaning the cash cushion will erode quickly.
• Wall Street Is Deeply Split. HSBC set a price target of $96, joining a range of analyst targets that span from $14 to $168 — a staggering gap that underscores the binary nature of the bet. UBS lowered its price target to $60, citing execution risk and cost concerns while maintaining a Neutral rating. Bulls point to the Meta power deal targeting 1.2 GW by 2034 and a first commercial nuclear installation slated to begin electricity generation by the end of 2027.
• The Real Test Is Regulatory, Not Commercial. Oklo expects to meet or beat the DOE's July 4, 2026 target for achieving criticality at the Aurora-INL and Groves isotope projects. Missing that deadline would undercut the entire narrative. The NVIDIA partnership adds credibility and may speed fuel research, but no reactor means no revenue — and the clock is ticking.