Shares of Paramount Skydance fell 8.2% to $8.95 on July 9, extending a week-long slide that has now wiped more than 13% off the stock since July 1. The catalyst: a two-front regulatory assault threatening to derail — or at least delay — the company's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, a deal that would create one of the world's largest media empires.
• Oregon's Attorney General Is Trying to Freeze the Deal for 60 Days
Attorney General Dan Rayfield is asking a Multnomah County judge to delay the deal from closing for 60 days while the state reviews the company's records.
Rayfield says Paramount has spent weeks dodging and delaying a straightforward records request, all while racing to close its deal with Warner Bros. Discovery before the state can finish looking into it. If the court grants the motion, closing would slip well into September — a massive problem for a company carrying roughly $49 billion in debt financing for the leveraged buyout. Every week of delay adds uncertainty and financing costs.
• Europe Extended Its Deadline, and Concessions May Not Be Enough
The European Commission confirmed the companies submitted commitments on June 30, extending its deadline for a decision to July 22.
One measure under consideration involves dissolving Paramount's film distribution joint venture with Universal Pictures.
Meanwhile, the UK's Competition and Markets Authority has initiated its own review, with a decision deadline set for August 7. That means even after Oregon, two major international regulators still stand in the way.
• Multiple U.S. States Are Piling On Despite the DOJ's Blessing
Though the Department of Justice gave its blessing to the merger last month, a coalition of states — including California and New York — continue to investigate whether it violates antitrust law.
Oregon's AG has even suggested the DOJ approval may have been influenced by lobbying, requesting records related to Paramount's contacts with the White House. This political dimension introduces risk no spreadsheet model can easily price.
• The Stock Is Pricing in Real Doubt About the Deal's Survival
The stock has declined roughly 21.8% year to date, and the accelerating selloff this week suggests investors see a growing probability the merger either collapses, gets restructured, or closes on worse terms. Analysts estimate over $6 billion in potential cost synergies, but those savings only matter if the deal actually closes. At $8.95, the market is sending a blunt message: the finish line is moving further away.