SoftBank Bet $65 Billion on OpenAI — Now a Delayed IPO Has Investors Asking What That Stake Is Really Worth

Shares of SoftBank slid from $42.19 to $37.27 over five trading days — an 11.7% decline — after a New York Times report that OpenAI is leaning toward pushing its IPO to 2027, rattling the core thesis behind Japan's most expensive tech stock.

The Biggest Single Bet in SoftBank's History Just Lost Its Near-Term Payday

SoftBank has poured roughly $65 billion into OpenAI, holding about a 13% stake — second only to Microsoft.

Expectations of a big financial windfall from OpenAI's public debut had buoyed SoftBank shares to record highs, pushing its market cap above Toyota's last month.

OpenAI's advisors presented two paths: list in 2027 at a $1 trillion valuation, or go sooner at a lower price. CEO Sam Altman made clear anything below a trillion is unacceptable. That stubbornness removes the quick-payday scenario investors had priced in.

A Stalled $6 Billion Loan Shows Lenders Are Nervous, Too

SoftBank's effort to raise at least $6 billion through a loan backed by its OpenAI holdings stalled, with lenders citing difficulty pricing the stake.

The failure intensifies scrutiny on SoftBank's ability to manage a significant $40 billion unsecured bridge loan maturing in 2027. In plain terms: SoftBank can't easily borrow against its biggest asset because banks can't agree on what it's worth — and the bills are coming due.

OpenAI's Own Losses Are Ballooning, Not Shrinking

OpenAI posted a net loss of over $21.3 billion in Q1 2026 alone, compared to a $39 billion net loss for all of 2025.

This has deepened investor skepticism about when massive AI infrastructure spending will translate into profits. Every quarter OpenAI stays private burning cash at this pace, the pressure on SoftBank's narrative — that this is a surefire windfall — grows harder to sustain.

SoftBank's Portfolio Is Unusually Hard to Value Without a Public OpenAI

According to strategist Hiroki Takei at Resona Holdings, SoftBank's portfolio is "unusually difficult to value" because it holds hundreds of companies with no public market price; a listed OpenAI would serve as a benchmark.

Each month OpenAI stays private closes the gap for competitors, threatening the premium valuation that justifies SoftBank's investment. At $37.27, the stock's P/E sits at just 7.3× — significantly below historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation — or reflecting a market that no longer trusts the timeline for turning paper gains into real money.