SoftBank Surges 9% as AI Euphoria and Analyst Upgrade Push Shares to Record Territory — But Can a Mountain of Debt Keep Up With Masayoshi Son's Ambitions?

Shares shifted sharply higher as SoftBank Group's U.S.-traded stock jumped 9.1% to $38.41, mirroring a record-setting session in Tokyo fueled by renewed AI enthusiasm, strength in chip designer Arm Holdings, and a major price-target hike from brokerage SMBC Nikko. The move marks a rebound from a bruising 12% selloff on June 26 triggered by reports of a potential OpenAI IPO delay, and puts investors back in the uncomfortable position of weighing enormous paper gains against mounting financial risk.

• A Broker Bet That Arm Is Worth Far More Than the Market Thinks

SMBC Nikko raised its SoftBank price target to ¥8,500 from ¥5,200, citing the group's improved exposure to Arm. That matters because SoftBank maintains an 86.4% ownership stake in Arm , making every rally in the chip designer a direct boost to SoftBank's asset value. The book profit on that Arm investment now exceeds $220 billion, a return of roughly 550%.

• OpenAI's $80 Billion Shadow Lifts Earnings — and Risk

SoftBank's position in the ChatGPT maker is now worth nearly $80 billion, with about $45 billion in unrealized gains.

The company reported a record annual profit of about ¥5 trillion for the year ended March 2026, helped by OpenAI and other AI-linked holdings. But that profit is largely on paper. S&P Global estimates OpenAI accounts for roughly 30% of SoftBank's investment portfolio , a concentration that prompted the rating agency to revise SoftBank's credit outlook to negative in March.

• The Debt Bill Is Getting Harder to Ignore

SoftBank's total OpenAI commitment is reported at roughly $65 billion for about a 13% stake, against total company debt of around $135 billion.

It secured a $40 billion bridge loan in March to fund additional OpenAI investments , and has reopened talks for a $10 billion loan backed by its OpenAI stake after earlier attempts stalled.

Its latest dollar bond carried an 8.5% coupon — a record borrowing cost for the firm — a sign lenders are charging a premium for the risk.

• The Dot-Com Echo Investors Can't Shake

SoftBank briefly topped Japan's corporate rankings in February 2000 at the peak of the dot-com bubble, only for shares to plummet 98% by year-end. It has reclaimed that crown — shares have nearly doubled in 2026 — but the same all-in conviction that electrifies bulls is precisely what makes bears nervous. If AI spending cools or OpenAI's IPO slips further, the leverage cuts both ways.