SoftBank Shed 21% in Two Days — Is Masayoshi Son's All-In AI Gamble Starting to Crack?

Shares of SoftBank Group stabilized at $21.66 on Monday after a brutal two-session wipeout that erased more than a fifth of the stock's value. On June 4, SFTBY plunged over 11% amid a widespread U.S. tech sector sell-off , then fell roughly another 10% as traders reassessed stretched valuations in AI-linked names. The stock went from $27.38 on June 2 to $21.66 by Friday — a $5.72 per-share haircut that tested whether investors still trust the world's most aggressive AI bet.

A Massive Tech Rout Exposed SoftBank's Outsized Sensitivity to Sentiment Swings

The Nasdaq fell more than 4.5% last week, erasing roughly $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 market cap. SoftBank fell more than twice as hard. Why? The company's value is heavily tied to its stake in chip designer Arm Holdings and its backing of OpenAI.

That makes the stock highly sensitive to changes in market sentiment — when AI confidence wobbles, SoftBank amplifies the pain.

$104 Billion in Debt and Rising Borrowing Costs Are the Real Worry

SoftBank secured a $40 billion bridge loan in March and carried about ¥16.3 trillion (~$104 billion) in stand-alone debt at end of 2025.

In April, the company raised $3.6 billion in bonds at an 8.5% coupon — a record-high rate for the firm — partly to repay bridge loans tied to OpenAI.

S&P revised SoftBank's credit outlook to negative in March , a warning that the company's borrowing binge is straining its financial credibility.

The Entire Thesis Hinges on OpenAI — Where SoftBank Has No Board Seat

SoftBank committed a cumulative $64.6 billion to OpenAI for roughly 13% ownership.

S&P estimates OpenAI now accounts for ~30% of SoftBank's portfolio, on par with Arm. Yet reports suggest SoftBank lacks a board seat or observer rights at OpenAI — an unusual position for an investor of that scale. If OpenAI does not successfully IPO at its current valuation or better, that could create meaningful pressure on SoftBank given the size of its exposure.

Even After the Drop, the Stock May Still Be Expensive

Despite the rout, SFTBY is still up roughly 70% year-to-date.

The average analyst target is $14.94 — implying about 31% further downside from current levels, with a consensus rating of "Sell." Consolidation at $21.66 may look like a floor, but the math says the market is still pricing in an AI future that SoftBank's balance sheet cannot afford to get wrong.