Shares of SoftBank Group (SFTBY) dropped 5.2% to $17.67 as investors recalibrated after weeks of AI-fueled euphoria collided with reports that OpenAI is pushing its blockbuster public listing from late 2026 into 2027. Sam Altman reportedly rejected lowering OpenAI's $1 trillion valuation target, choosing instead to delay the debut — a decision that directly undercuts the near-term catalyst SoftBank shareholders had been banking on.
SoftBank Has Bet the Farm on OpenAI, and the Payoff Just Got Pushed Back. SoftBank committed $30 billion in follow-on investments via Vision Fund 2, bringing its cumulative OpenAI investment to roughly $64.6 billion for approximately 13% ownership.
The second $10 billion tranche was executed on July 1 — just days before this selloff — financed through bridge loans. An OpenAI IPO was supposed to turn that paper bet into real, marketable value. SoftBank's Tokyo-listed shares fell nearly 13% after the delay reports first broke, showing how much near-term value had been attached to a possible OpenAI liquidity event.
SpaceX's Rocky Debut Spooked the Entire Mega-Cap IPO Pipeline. SpaceX's June 12 IPO raised more than $85 billion, but the stock plummeted from above $225 to $153 within two weeks — a cautionary tale that made OpenAI's advisors worry retail investors may have less appetite for buying. If the market won't support a trillion-dollar debut for a rocketship company, the bar for an AI company still projecting $14 billion in losses for 2026 alone and not expecting profitability until 2029–2030 is even higher.
Masayoshi Son's Spending Spree Isn't Slowing, Even If the Exits Are. SoftBank announced €75 billion ($87 billion) for AI data centers in France , and is planning a $100 billion AI and robotics spinoff called Roze.
To fund the binge, SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia stake for $5.83 billion and offloaded $12.73 billion in T-Mobile stock. Son insists AI is "50x bigger than dot-com," but with exits delayed, shareholders are left holding a leveraged bet on a private company burning cash at an extraordinary rate.
The Bottom Line for Shareholders. SoftBank today functions as a publicly traded proxy for OpenAI. Analysts caution that holding companies like SoftBank typically trade at a discount because shareholders don't always fully benefit from the value of underlying assets. Until OpenAI actually goes public and reveals its real financials, that discount is widening — and SoftBank's borrowing continues.