Shares of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF jumped to $41.55 on June 15, as a tentative 60-day U.S.–Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil tumbling, easing inflation fears and lifting gold-backed funds in a broad risk-on wave. SGOL Surges 3.6% as U.S.-Iran Deal Reshapes the Rate Outlook, but Can Gold's Rally Survive a Fragile 60-Day Peace?
Shares of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF leapt to $41.55 Monday morning after a weekend breakthrough between Washington and Tehran sent crude oil tumbling and rewired inflation expectations overnight. Gold climbed above $4,300 an ounce, advancing for a third consecutive session after the U.S. and Iran reached a peace agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For SGOL holders — whose fund simply tracks the price of physical gold bars stored in vaults — the move translates dollar-for-dollar.
Oil's Collapse Is the Real Engine Behind Gold's Rally. Crude oil fell to $80.54 per barrel on June 15, down 5.11% from the previous day. That is a staggering drop from $96.42 per barrel just two weeks earlier on June 1.
Oil markets have faced significant disruption since the conflict erupted in late February, with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz affecting roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Cheaper oil means lower gasoline and transport costs, which cools the inflation numbers that had been pushing the Federal Reserve toward a tighter policy. When inflation expectations fall, the "real yield" on bonds — the return after subtracting inflation — drops too, making gold, which pays no interest, relatively more attractive.
The Fed Meets Tomorrow, and the Peace Deal Changes the Conversation. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50%–3.75%, unchanged for three consecutive meetings.
The rate decision is almost foregone: nearly 97.4% of traders expect rates to stay unchanged. But the real question is tone. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed chair on May 22 , and oil's plunge gives him breathing room to avoid hawkish language — a gift for gold bulls.
A 60-Day Window Is Not a Permanent Peace. The agreement extends the current ceasefire for 60 days, with the goal of negotiating a permanent end to the war; the fate of Iran's nuclear program remains unresolved.
The path to restoring flows still has hurdles, including mine clearance; producers cautioned that a complete recovery could take months. If talks collapse, oil spikes back, inflation fears return, and SGOL's rally reverses just as fast.
What It Means for Shareholders. SGOL has whipsawed between $38.88 and $41.55 in just five trading days — a 6.9% swing. Gold hit an all-time high of $5,595 in January 2026 and now trades roughly 22% below that peak. Goldman Sachs still targets $5,400 by year-end. The gap between today's price and Wall Street's bull case is wide, but it hinges entirely on whether a tentative ceasefire hardens into lasting peace — or shatters into another supply shock.