Shares of iShares Silver Trust jumped 3.1% to $55.13 on July 1 as spot silver prices rebounded to roughly $58.75 an ounce, snapping a bruising June selloff. The catalyst: escalating tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which a significant share of global oil transits — sent investors scrambling into precious metals as a hedge against geopolitical risk. For SLV holders, the question is whether this rally has legs or is merely a reflexive fear trade. Silver Surges 3% as Mideast Anxiety and a Bruising June Selloff Collide — But Is SLV Riding a Fear Trade or a Lasting Rally?
Shares of iShares Silver Trust climbed 3.1% to $55.13 on July 1 as spot silver rebounded to roughly $59.47 per ounce, steady in early trading after reaching that level by 8:05 a.m. ET. The bounce follows a punishing June that saw silver breach the $60 mark for the first time since December 2025 and SLV slide from $53.28 to as low as $51.78 over the final week of the month. For investors, the central question is whether today's pop marks a floor — or just a brief pause.
• The Strait of Hormuz Remains a Live Wire for Markets. After more than five weeks of fighting, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire and signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 intended to formally end the conflict within 60 days. But a conditional ceasefire is in place, yet shipping levels through the strait remain very low.
Around 20% of global petroleum and 20% of liquefied natural gas traverses the strait each year, so any renewed disruption sends investors rushing into precious metals. That reflexive bid is what's lifting SLV today.
• Silver's June Rout Was Driven by Fed Fears, Not Fundamentals. Gold and silver prices continue to struggle in tandem, with silver faring even worse than gold, facing a strengthening dollar and the prospect of Fed rate increases later this year. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI painted a mixed picture: the sharpest fall in employment since May 2020 and business confidence at an eight-month low, even as the headline PMI rose to 55.7 in June, its highest since May 2022. Slowing confidence could ease pressure on the Fed to tighten — a potential tailwind for silver.
• The Bull Case Still Looks Intact on Paper. Silver has surged more than 150% over the past year, hitting its highest levels in over a decade, and J.P. Morgan sees silver averaging $81/oz in 2026. At ~$59, silver sits well below that target. But silver's industrial applications — including solar panels and electronics — serve as a key demand driver, and cost increases may erode that demand long term, leading to greater price volatility.
• What to Watch Next. The ISM Manufacturing PMI featuring June data drops at 10 a.m. ET today, July 1. A weaker reading could weaken the dollar and boost silver further. Meanwhile, any breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks — where toll plans and counter-toll threats represent a new front in the dispute over who controls the waterway — would reignite safe-haven buying. SLV shareholders should watch both data points: one is in Washington, the other in the Strait.