Shares of Tesla climbed 1.6% to $348.40 on June 13 as investors digested the previous day's landmark event: SpaceX officially launched its initial public offering, and with it, a fresh wave of speculation that Elon Musk could eventually fold his rocket company and his carmaker into a single entity. SpaceX's Record IPO Reignites Tesla Merger Speculation — But Would a $3 Trillion-Plus Union Create Value or Just Complexity?
Shares shifted as SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, closing its first day at $160.95 — a 19% pop that briefly pushed its value above $2.25 trillion. The debut instantly revived the biggest question hanging over Tesla investors: will Elon Musk combine his two publicly traded empires into one?
• The Biggest IPO Ever Hands Musk a New Currency for Deals
The company raised roughly $75 billion selling more than 555 million shares at its offer price of $135. That cash pile and a liquid, publicly traded stock give Musk the tools to execute an all-stock or hybrid merger that was structurally impossible when SpaceX was private. Musk retains over 82% voting control of SpaceX after the offering , meaning he faces virtually no board resistance on either side. One analyst noted Musk "won't have to worry about pushback" from SpaceX's board, given his 85% voting power.
• Wall Street Sees an 80% Chance of a Tie-Up Within a Year
Wedbush's Dan Ives indicated an 80% likelihood of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX within the next year.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell herself hinted at the possibility, noting that combining the companies "might make Elon Musk's life a little easier." But prediction markets are cooler: Kalshi traders placed only 33% odds the deal closes before May 2027. That gap signals real uncertainty about timing and terms.
• A Combined Company Could Be Worth Over $3 Trillion — On Paper
Quick math shows a combined SpaceX-Tesla giant could be worth more than $3 trillion, leapfrogging Amazon and Microsoft. Yet the financial fit is rough. SpaceX's 2025 revenue rose 33% to $18.7 billion, but its net loss reached $4.9 billion. Tesla's own $3.8 billion in 2025 net income would be diluted by absorbing those losses. SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation works out to roughly 94.7 times annual sales — a staggering premium that Tesla shareholders would effectively be buying into.
• Tesla's Core Auto Business Faces Its Own Pressures
In China, Tesla fell behind BYD, Geely, and Chery in EV sales in April; BYD defeated Tesla as the leading global EV seller last year. A merger could distract from those competitive battles — or, as bulls argue, redefine Tesla as an AI-and-infrastructure conglomerate rather than a slowing automaker. Morningstar sees "a solid business case for a merger, but not without hurdles."
At $348.40, Tesla trades at roughly 365× earnings — a price that already bakes in extraordinary ambitions. Whether a SpaceX union adds substance or just spectacle is the trillion-dollar question shareholders now face.