Morgan Stanley increased its second-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla to approximately 413,000 vehicles. This revision represents a significant jump from the bank's previous estimate of 373,000 units.
The updated forecast sits above the current market consensus of 401,000 to 406,000 vehicles. Strengthening sales and registration data from Europe and China during April and May prompted the change.
European registrations are currently trending well above 2025 levels. China sales experienced a rebound in May, while U.S. demand remains comparatively soft.
Despite the higher delivery estimates, Morgan Stanley maintained its $415 price target. The bank views the volume growth as a regional recovery rather than a change to its long-term investment thesis.