Shares of Tesla shifted sharply lower over the past week, shedding roughly ARS 3,260 (7.5%) from ARS 43,680 to ARS 40,420, as renewed speculation that Elon Musk may fold the electric-vehicle maker into SpaceX — which is on the verge of a record-breaking IPO — injected fresh uncertainty into an already fragile stock.

  • A $75 Billion IPO Puts Merger Talk on Steroids. SpaceX confidentially filed for its IPO on April 1, with analysts targeting a June 2026 listing at a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion.

The company plans to file its prospectus with the SEC as early as next week, with an investor roadshow expected to kick off on June 8. The sheer proximity of that listing has revived chatter that Musk wants to combine the companies, and rumors are swirling that Musk may merge SpaceX and Tesla after the historic $2 trillion IPO, creating a sprawling conglomerate spanning rockets, robots, EVs, and AI.

  • Betting Markets Aren't Sold, But the Damage Is Real. Betting markets on Polymarket assign just a 15% likelihood to a Tesla-SpaceX combination. Yet even low-probability merger talk is corrosive to a stock already trading at roughly 390 times earnings. Fund manager Gary Black warned the deal could see a "20–25% reduction" in Tesla's stock value if the EV giant, with a 100x EV/EBITDA, buys SpaceX at a 200x EV/EBITDA. The concern: Tesla shareholders get diluted into a harder-to-value entity.

  • Tesla's Core Business Was Already Struggling. The merger noise lands on a company with soft fundamentals. Q1 2026 deliveries came in at 358,023 vehicles, below the 365,645 Wall Street consensus, and inventory swelled by more than 50,000 units — the largest single-quarter build in Tesla history. Capital spending is set to triple to $25 billion in 2026, turning Tesla's free cash flow negative for what could be a multi-year investment cycle. When the base business is weakening, adding a $2 trillion space empire hardly calms nerves.

  • Governance Gives Musk Near-Total Control. SpaceX employs a dual-class share structure where Class B holders receive 10 votes per share; after the IPO, Musk is expected to hold 50% of the voting power plus board-appointment authority.

Major pension funds from New York and California have jointly raised objections, blasting the structure and demanding one-share-one-vote governance. In a merged entity, ordinary shareholders could have even less say over strategy while shouldering the combined risk of rockets, satellites, AI, and cars.

The bottom line: until Musk or Tesla's board explicitly rules out a deal, the overhang will persist — and at 390x earnings, there is almost no margin for ambiguity.