USO Surges 13% in a Week as Two Wars Squeeze Global Oil Routes — How Long Can Fear Alone Keep Prices Climbing?
Shares of the United States Oil Fund jumped 3.2% in pre-market to $123.15 on Friday, capping a punishing week for oil bears. USO is now up roughly 13.3% since July 10, when it traded at $108.70, as the world's two most important oil shipping corridors came under simultaneous attack. For USO holders — who own a fund that tracks short-term crude futures, not physical barrels — the question is whether this war premium has staying power or is borrowing from a crash that comes the moment diplomats find a deal.
Six Straight Nights of U.S. Strikes and Iran Won't Back Down
The U.S. military launched airstrikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night on Thursday , with the bombing campaign reaching deeper inside the country.
The IRGC responded by vowing that "not a single drop of oil or gas will be exported from the region" as long as U.S. action continues. Tanker traffic through the Strait fell to two-month lows, with only seven vessels transiting on Wednesday — down from 13 the day before. That strait normally carries about 20 million barrels per day, or roughly 25% of the world's maritime oil trade. Every day it stays choked lifts the price of the futures contracts USO holds.
The IEA Says the Clock Is Ticking in Weeks, Not Months
IEA chief Fatih Birol warned that the strait must be "fully open, unconditionally open" within weeks — not months — to spare the global economy.
Wall Street analysts discussed scenarios of $170–$200 oil during the spring shutdown , and Brent is already back above $86 after trading near $68 just weeks ago. The EIA forecasts global oil consumption will drop 1.2 million barrels per day this year — demand destruction that could cap any rally if prices stay elevated long enough.
Black Sea Tanker Attacks Add a Second Chokepoint to the Crisis
Ukrainian naval drones hit two large Russia-linked oil tankers in the Black Sea on Thursday , expanding a campaign that struck 116 vessels in an eight-day window.
Russia's Novorossiysk port loaded over 980,000 barrels of crude per day in June — more than 20% of Russia's seaborne exports — and those flows are now directly threatened.
What It Means for USO Holders
USO tracks front-month futures, meaning its price reflects today's panic, not long-term supply fundamentals. The EIA's baseline forecast still sees Brent averaging $74 in Q3 and falling to $65 in 2027 — but that outlook assumed the June ceasefire would hold. It didn't. If Hormuz stays contested, USO's rally has room to run; if a deal materializes, the unwind could be just as violent as the surge.