Viasat Won a Blockbuster Space Force Deal — So Why Can't the Stock Hold Its Gains?

Shares of Viasat slipped 1.3% to $63.06 in pre-market trading Tuesday, extending a choppy pullback that has erased much of the euphoria from the company's landmark U.S. Space Force satellite contract. The slide underscores a familiar pattern: defense wins generate a sugar rush, then investors sober up and ask what the deal is actually worth year by year.

• An 18% Spike Gave Way to Weeks of Selling Viasat stock soared 18.2% on June 11 after announcing the Space Force had awarded it a prime contract to build a small, maneuverable satellite for jam-resistant military communications. The stock hit a near seven-year high of $81.92 , but has since shed roughly 23% from that peak. Over the past year, VSAT has made 67 moves greater than 5% — that kind of volatility is baked into the stock's character.

• The Dollar Amounts Sound Huge, but Revenue Arrives Slowly The total value of the two Swarm 1 contracts — split between Viasat and Intelsat — is $437.7 million, or roughly $219 million each.

That $219 million equates to about 4.7% of Viasat's trailing-12-month sales of $4.6 billion. The work stretches through 2029, and part of the award covers paying Viasat to operate the satellite for five years, spreading revenue so it boosts annual growth by roughly 1%. The broader program has an IDIQ ceiling value of $4 billion across all program awardees , but that ceiling is shared with competitors including Northrop Grumman and Boeing — Viasat's actual share remains uncertain.

• Analysts Are Bullish, but the Valuation Gap Keeps Widening Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $97 from $48 and keeps a Buy rating , while Raymond James raised its target to $93 from $74 with an Outperform rating. Yet the average analyst target sits at $88.88 — over 40% above today's price — suggesting the market is skeptical of the growth timeline. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for only mid-single-digit revenue growth and stable EBITDA , hardly the acceleration the post-contract rally priced in.

• Heavy Spending and Starlink Loom as Real Risks Viasat expects FY27 capital expenditures of $950 million to $1 billion — a massive outlay for a company with an $8.8 billion market cap. That spending funds next-generation satellites but pressures free cash flow while SpaceX's Starlink continues to dominate commercial broadband and eyes military contracts. The repricing suggests investors are recalibrating from dream scenario to base case: a credible but incremental defense win for a company still burning capital to compete.