Shares of Viasat plunged 9.4% to $78.58 on May 29 after the satellite communications company delivered fiscal 2026 results that were adequate on paper but paired them with a fiscal 2027 outlook too tepid for a stock that had already priced in aggressive growth. VSAT had surged roughly 835% over the past year to trade near its 52-week high of $89.78 — a setup that left no room for conservative guidance.
• Q4 Numbers Were Fine; The Problem Is What Comes Next
Q4 revenue came in at $1.2 billion, up just 2% year-over-year , and missed the Street consensus by 2.4% . Full-year revenue was $4.6 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.55 billion . Decent, but not the kind of acceleration that supports a stock that nearly decupled. For fiscal 2027, management guided to only mid-single-digit revenue growth and flat to slightly higher adjusted EBITDA — a measure of operating profit before accounting charges — with results back-end loaded . That's a "be patient" message investors weren't prepared to hear.
• Cash Flow Looks Strong Until You Strip Out a One-Time Windfall
Free cash flow hit $597 million for fiscal 2026, but that included a lump-sum payment from Ligado; excluding it, the figure was only $177 million . With fiscal 2027 capital expenditures guided at $950 million to $1 billion and free cash flow expected around $180 million , Viasat remains a capital-hungry business. That thin cash cushion limits debt paydown speed and buyback capacity.
• Two Key Businesses Haven't Turned the Corner Yet
Management admitted it "didn't quite turn the corner on maritime revenue" and, more critically, "didn't see stabilization" in its fixed broadband business . Maritime revenues are now expected to stabilize only by year-end 2027 . These are the two segments that need to improve for the communications services division — Viasat's largest — to grow meaningfully.
• Record Backlog Provides a Floor, Not a Catalyst
Contract backlog surged 15% to roughly $4.1 billion , and Q4 awards rose 9% to about $1.3 billion , driven largely by defense and government work. Defense revenue is guided to grow mid-teens in fiscal 2027 , but that segment is smaller and can't single-handedly offset sluggish communications growth. Barclays' fair-value analysis suggests the stock may be overvalued at current levels , maintaining a $49 price target — barely half of where shares trade today.
The bottom line: Viasat's operational progress is real, but the stock ran far ahead of the fundamentals. Until maritime and broadband revenues inflect, investors are paying a growth premium for a company still guiding like a utility.