The International Air Transport Association (IATA) cut its 2026 global airline profit forecast to $23 billion. This projection represents a sharp decline from the $45 billion earned in 2025.
Projected jet fuel costs will surge nearly 40% to reach $350 billion in 2026. Geopolitical tensions and fuel price volatility drove the revised outlook.
Shares of major U.S. carriers, including American Airlines, fell following the announcement. Industry net profit margins are expected to shrink to 2.0% from 4.2% in 2025.
Profit per passenger is forecast to be halved. Several U.S. airlines previously lowered earnings guidance due to rising fuel expenses.