Shares in BHP Group edged up 0.8% to £3,270 as the world's biggest miner reported a blockbuster fiscal year, raising a pointed question: has the company's long-running pivot toward copper officially crossed the finish line — or is this just the starting gun? BHP Just Proved Its Copper Gamble Is Paying Off — but Is the Stock Pricing In Perfection?
Shares in BHP Group ticked up 0.8% to £3,270 the day after the mining giant disclosed a fiscal year that rewrites its identity: copper now contributes 54% of group EBITDA with a 70% margin, the first time it has exceeded iron ore's contribution. For shareholders, the question is no longer whether BHP's copper pivot will work — it's whether the market has already baked that success into the price.
A 30% Profit Jump Built on Copper Prices and Cost Discipline
Underlying attributable profit rose to $13.2 billion from $10.2 billion a year earlier, while underlying EBITDA increased 27% to $32.9 billion.
Revenue climbed 15% to $58.8 billion, helped by higher realized copper, iron ore, and steelmaking coal prices. Crucially, copper production of roughly 1.95 million tonnes, up 3%, was supercharged by a 35% jump in copper prices during the fiscal year. That price tailwind alone added $7.3 billion to EBITDA. Investors should note: a significant chunk of this windfall came from a commodity price BHP cannot control.
The Balance Sheet Gives BHP Room to Spend — and Return Cash
Net debt fell to just $8.7 billion, roughly 0.3 times annual EBITDA — an unusually low level for a capital-intensive miner. That freed up $8.7 billion in total shareholder returns, including dividends of $1.72 per share, the highest payout in four years. The lean balance sheet also means BHP can self-fund its growth pipeline without issuing new debt or equity — a rare luxury in mining.
BHP Is Betting the Next Decade on Even More Copper Management outlined 3% to 4% annual production growth from 2027 to 2035, including roughly 5% per year in copper,
targeting approximately 2.5 million tonnes per year by the mid-2030s. That growth hinges on projects like the Vicuña joint venture with Lundin Mining in Argentina, which recently received environmental approval and fiscal stability guarantees for 40 years. The macro backdrop is supportive: Chile's copper commission forecasts average prices of $5.55 per pound in 2026 and $5.10 in 2027, citing tight supply and firm demand.
The Risk Nobody Wants to Talk About
BHP's stock is already trading near the top of its 52-week range, meaning much of this good news may be priced in. With copper representing over half of earnings, any pullback in prices — from a recession, a Chinese slowdown, or new mine supply — would hit BHP disproportionately hard. The company that diversified into copper has, in a sense, concentrated away from diversification. That's a trade-off shareholders should watch closely.