Shares of AST SpaceMobile surged 7% to $70.23 on Thursday, snapping a brutal slide that wiped roughly 13% off the stock in just four sessions — from $80.66 on June 18 to $65.62 on Wednesday. The rebound is fueled by two catalysts that got buried in last week's SpaceX-driven selloff: a Japanese regulatory nod for its Rakuten joint venture and a confirmed August satellite launch. For a pre-profit company valued near $25 billion, the question is whether execution can keep pace with expectations.

  • Japan Just Cleared a Major Hurdle for Satellite-to-Phone Service. A subcommittee of Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications recommended allowing direct communication between low-Earth-orbit satellites and ordinary smartphones via the 700 MHz band.

Rakuten CEO Hiroshi Mikitani said the company will form a 50-50 satellite joint venture with AST SpaceMobile this year, with Rakuten leading management.

The venture targets limited service by late 2026 and nationwide coverage in fiscal 2027, positioning it to compete for Japan's 150 billion yen (~$1 billion) satellite project. That's real revenue territory — but if the JV owns and operates the satellites, most cash needs to go out before customers can pay, since satellite costs are front-loaded while revenue ramps only after coverage and reliability are proven.

  • Three More Satellites Headed to Orbit in August. AST SpaceMobile announced that satellites 11, 12, and 13 will launch from Cape Canaveral in the first half of August, building on the successful June deployment of satellites 8, 9, and 10.

Each features a roughly 2,400-square-foot antenna array and is expected to deliver nearly double the peak data speeds of earlier satellites, which recently hit 98.9 Mbps directly to standard phones. The launch cadence matters: management targets roughly 45 satellites in orbit by year-end , and every slip erodes credibility.

  • The SpaceX Shadow Hasn't Gone Away. ASTS suffered a rapid 20% drawdown during the SpaceX IPO frenzy as investors rotated cash into the newly public $2 trillion giant. Roth Capital argued AST SpaceMobile still has "a better mousetrap" and "a roughly two-year head start" in direct-to-phone service versus Starlink. But Starlink is already profitable on its own, while AST remains unprofitable , with trailing twelve-month revenue of just $85 million and a net loss per share of -$1.78.

  • The Numbers Demand Flawless Execution. Management reaffirmed $150–$200 million in 2026 revenue guidance , yet Q1 delivered only $14.7 million — missing the $37.5 million estimate by 61% due to gateway-deployment timing. Investors shrugged, partly because of a $3.5 billion cash cushion . Still, at roughly 300× trailing sales, the stock prices in years of growth that haven't happened yet. Today's bounce rewards patience — but not yet proof.