Shares of SpaceX jumped 3.4% to $158.44 Monday after Elon Musk posted on X that he'd be "disappointed" if the company didn't "significantly exceed" a projection of nearly $100 billion in annual revenue by 2028. SpaceX reported just $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025 and posted a $4.94 billion net loss — meaning Musk is essentially promising a fivefold leap in three years while the company still loses money. The stock had been sliding from a $225.64 all-time high toward $147 before this week's rebound, and the comments landed at the perfect moment to arrest the selloff.

  • The Numbers Are Staggering Even by Tech Standards. Musk said earlier this month that SpaceX could reach roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, more than triple Morgan Stanley's estimate of roughly $330 billion.

Goldman Sachs has projected a more optimistic 2030 revenue figure above $470 billion, while New Street Research projects about $195 billion and ARK Invest suggests $300–$400 billion. Even the most aggressive Wall Street forecast is less than half of Musk's target — a gap that either signals visionary confidence or detachment from reality.

  • AI, Not Rockets, Must Carry the Load. The AI division is expected to carry roughly 68% of total revenue by 2030 , largely through the acquired xAI unit. That unit generated $3.2 billion in revenue but a $6.4 billion net loss in 2025.

SpaceX has announced contracts to lease data centers to Google and Anthropic for about $26 billion annually — a promising start, but a fraction of what's needed to reach a trillion.

  • The Valuation Already Assumes Historic Growth. Bears concede SpaceX can grow; their argument is that the price tag already assumes it grows faster than any company in history, in a segment where it currently trails. At roughly $2 trillion in market capitalization on $19 billion in revenue, SPCX trades at more than 100 times sales — a multiple that only works if nearly everything goes right simultaneously: Starship reusability, Starlink scaling past 10 million subscribers, and an AI business beating entrenched rivals like Google and OpenAI.

  • Execution Milestones Will Arrive Soon. Goldman expects the AI segment to rise 388% to $15.6 billion in 2026 , a figure investors can verify when SpaceX releases its next earnings report on August 6, 2026. That print will be the first real test of whether Musk's rhetoric matches revenue. Until then, shareholders are buying a promise priced like a certainty.