The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its all-wheat production estimate to 1.561 billion bushels in the May WASDE report. This forecast marks the smallest domestic wheat crop since 1972. Severe drought conditions across the U.S. Plains drove the significant production decline.

Wheat futures climbed sharply as the market adjusted to tighter supply projections. Higher input costs now face food manufacturers, reigniting concerns over consumer food inflation. Although the USDA projected large corn and soybean supplies, the wheat shortage pressures sector profitability and pricing.